I think this is a really difficult one, there's no clear frontrunner. My heart is with The Banshees of Inisherin, and All Quiet on the Western Front may get a boost from winning Best Film at the BAFTAs, but my money's tentatively on Everything Everywhere All At Once. If you missed it the first time round there'll be another chance to catch it on the big screen here this month!
I suspect Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) may do a double and get best director(s) as well as best picture, but wouldn't be surprised if voters get sentimental and it goes to Spielberg (The Fabelmans).
Best Lead Actor
My money's on the much-loved Brendan Fraser, though I haven't had a chance to see The Whale yet (it's on here this week). Austin Butler was a brilliant Elvis though, and I LOVED Colin Farrell's performance in Banshees - if there was an award for Most Expressive Eyebrows he'd be the winner by a mile!
Best Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár) all the way on this one, I think. She's just extraordinary.
Who missed out?
As for who missed out, I think it's bizarre that neither Till nor The Woman King feature in either the Best Picture or Best Actress categories. There's been a lot written about the inclusion of Andrea Riseborough in the latter category, with allegations of unfair campaigning, but by all accounts her performance in To Leslie is superb - come and see it this month and judge for yourselves! - so it's hard to say who shouldn't have been nominated, and great to see so many strong female leads.